Ninth Stage

Not any specific city, any big city over a quarter million in population is likely “Crime City”.

We’ve heard the news, murder and other violent crime increased at the fastest rate since ‘91.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Murders in the United States jumped 4.8 percent last year, and overall violent crime was up 2.5 percent for the year, marking the largest annual increase in crime in the United States since 1991, according to figures released Monday by the FBI.

Robberies nationally increased 4.5 percent, and aggravated assaults increased 1.9 percent, while the number of rapes last year fell 1.9 percent, the report said.

It sounds as if the whole nation is is affected by this wave. If you live in a large city the statistics might be worse. If you live in a large city in a gun-unfriendly state the statistics probably are worse.

Howard Nemerov takes a look at the data and finds that cities over 250,000 population suffer a murder rate twice the national average while cities at or below 25,000 enjoy a rate half the national average. So the big cities are messing up the grading curve.

More interesting than rats in cages city dwellers offing each other are the data comparing Right-to-Carry (RTC) versus non-RTC states. Nemerov shows a table comparing the rate of incidence per 100k:

Table 4 – Violent Crime Rate Averages, 2005

Population Violent Crime Homicide Rape Robbery Assault

RTC 394.4 4.8 35.6 93.6 260.4

Non-RTC 504.0 6.9 28.1 173.2 295.7

Pct Difference 27.8 43.8 (21.1) 85.0 13.6

Also interesting is the table showing the year over year (percentage) trend:

Table 5 – RTC Violent Crime Rate Trend Comparison, 2004-2005
(Decreasing Rate)

Population Violent Crime Homicide Rape Robbery Assault

RTC 1.1 0.3 (2.0) 1.6 1.4

Non-RTC 2.1 1.9 (4.4) 6.8 0.2

Unfortunately, even in RTC states homicide rates increased, but note that homicide grew at 1/6th the rate of non-RTC states. And what’s up with the rape stats? Women, if you live in an RTC state, get a carry permit and carry a gun! Help keep those pigs from thinking that they’re “more equal than others.”